Kings did die unexpectedly.
Nobles were injured.
Horses fell.
Arrows went where they were not intended.
If Walter Tirel really fired at a deer and the arrow deflected or missed, striking William instead, the basic mechanism fits the dangers of medieval hunting.
But plausibility does not prove accident.
The problem is what happened afterward.
The Morning Began With an Omen—At Least According to Later Accounts
Medieval chronicles loved omens.
Dreams.
Warnings.
Strange weather.
Blood appearing where it should not.
Voices heard at night.
Priests experiencing visions.
A dramatic death attracted supernatural foreshadowing almost automatically.
Stories emerged that William had received warnings before the hunt.
One version told of a monk dreaming that the king entered a church and attacked the crucified Christ, only for Christ to strike back.
Other traditions claimed the king had been urged not to hunt that day.
William supposedly laughed.
Whether any of these warnings actually occurred is impossible to establish with confidence.
They function perfectly as literary devices.
A proud king is warned.
The king ignores the warning.
The king dies before nightfall.
For a medieval moral writer, nothing more is needed.
But for historical reconstruction, these details must be separated from the stronger core.
William hunted on August 2.
He was struck by an arrow.
He died in the New Forest.
The rest becomes increasingly uncertain.
The Hunting Party Included Men With Reasons to Care About the Succession
Royal hunting companions were not random villagers.
They were nobles.
Courtiers.
Men connected to the king's political world.
Some had relationships with Henry.
Some had interests in what would happen if William died without an heir.
That fact alone creates suspicion.
But any royal activity naturally included politically important men.
If a king unexpectedly dies among nobles, someone present will almost always benefit from whatever comes next.
Benefit is not proof of planning.
Still, one man benefited more than anyone else.
Henry.
William's younger brother.
Henry Was the Youngest Son Who Had Received Money Instead of a Kingdom
When William the Conqueror died in 1087, he did not leave all his territories to one son.
His eldest surviving son, Robert Curthose, received Normandy.
William Rufus received England.
Henry received money.
This division produced exactly the instability one might expect.
Robert wanted England.
William wanted influence over Normandy.
Nobles with lands on both sides of the Channel had divided loyalties.
Rebellions followed.
Alliances shifted.
Brothers fought, negotiated, and fought again.
Henry was initially the weakest of the three politically.
He possessed intelligence and ambition but lacked a kingdom.
Over time, he acquired lands and supporters.
He watched his elder brothers struggle.
He survived their conflicts.
By 1100, he was no longer a marginal younger son.
He was a serious political figure.
But under the normal order of inheritance, Robert had the stronger claim if William died without children.
That was Henry's problem.
Robert was older.
Robert was Duke of Normandy.
Robert had been a leading participant in the First Crusade.
His reputation had been strengthened by crusading success.
If William II died and the English barons had time to deliberate, Robert could become the obvious candidate.
Henry needed something Robert did not have.
Speed.
On August 2, 1100, speed suddenly became available.
Robert Was Not in England
The timing could hardly have been more favorable to Henry.
Robert Curthose had returned from the First Crusade and was in continental Europe, not standing beside the English treasury.
Messages still traveled at the speed of horses and ships.
There was no instant communication.
If William died suddenly, the first man to secure royal institutions could gain an enormous advantage before Robert even understood what had happened.
That is exactly what Henry did.
This is one of the strongest reasons the death continues to attract conspiracy theories.
Not because Henry benefited.
Many people benefit from unexpected events.
Because he benefited immediately.
Decisively.
And with extraordinary efficiency.
William Went Into the Forest, and the Political World Was Still Normal
He was king.
Henry was a younger brother.
Robert was Duke of Normandy.
The royal treasury at Winchester belonged to William.
The English crown was not vacant.
A few hours later, every one of those facts had changed.
William was dead.
The throne was open.
The treasury had become the key to power.
Henry had a narrow window before supporters of Robert could organize.
He used it.
But first, the king had to die.
The Fatal Moment Has Several Versions
Later chroniclers described the death differently.
The most familiar account says Walter Tirel shot at a stag.
His arrow either missed or glanced from a tree.
It struck William in the chest.
The king died almost immediately.
Another version makes the shot more direct.
Others shift details about who was nearby.
The exact location of Henry at the moment of impact is uncertain in the surviving traditions.